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Overall Accuracy Report - Updated Over Time

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The overall accuracy of our statistical projections.

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New Tie-Break/Tabulation System

(This article is by guest contributor Carter Schrum) For a long time, many, if not all tournaments have used use a tie-break method based primarily or solely on speaker points for calculating breaks and determining final rankings. This has been a sore point for many debaters who feel that speaker points are too subjective and that other factors such as strength of schedule should be given greater weight in tie breaks. We have developed a new formula that could largely solve such disparities in modern tabulation processes by giving proportional weight to speaker points and strength of schedule that could better reflect the performance of competitors at a given tournament. This formula is simply an average of three variables: S1 (explained below), W% (Win percentage of a team), and lastly S2 (strength of schedule or Avg W% of opponents). The formula (S1+W%+S2)/3 This formula seeks to balance the effect speaker points have on overall rank via the use of a key variabl...

NVDC Predictions (LD)

I've worked hard today despite my two rounds I've had to debate to bring you the LD predictions for the NVDC. This especially took a lot of work because I had to substantially change my model to account for powermatching beginning at round two. I also took into account for the predictions debaters' records at the Ziggy tournament. Although, not an official tournament, I think it's more than appropriate to include given that it's an online tournament like this one, unlike all of the other official tournaments. Here are the probabilities of winning for LD: Dylan George - 15% Logan Whitcher - 11% Micah Kunkle - 10% Dylan Jacobs - 9% Benjamin Arroyave - 7% Shane Felis - 7% Danielle Leard - 7% Anthony Fitzgerald - 4% Kalin Johnson - 4% Eugene Kong - 4% Benjamin Wagner - 3% Brandon True - 3% Simon Scott - 3% Noah Reid - 3% Elizabeth Powell - 2% Camille Floyd - 2% Nathan Wang - 2% All other debaters are at 1% or less. Full...

The Escalade Tournament Predictions (LD) (Updated Again)

I'm pleased to announce the LD predictions for the Escalade are complete. Here is a quick rundown of everyone's chances of winning: Noah Matthews - 17% Brandon Zarkovacki - 12% Parker Boone - 10% Colton Hughes - 9% Elaine Csoros - 8% Micah McGee - 7% Jeffrey Link - 5% Amber Moran - 3% Cedar Roach - 3% Alyssa Sloneker - 3% Conner Brown - 3% All other debaters are at 2% or less (Edit: I updated the odds to account for each individual's probability of winning finals rather than simply dividing their probability of making finals by two. It doesn't substantially impact the odds other than by giving the top 5 a bit of an uptick.) TP predictions will be released tomorrow. Full probabilities can be viewed here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nukAlHRkYukChD-21-_J3i2VvQogNSrsiXEJnpz1XqE/edit?usp=sharing

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Overall Accuracy Report - Updated Over Time

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