(Quick announcement before getting into the predictions. Right now I'm taking a straw poll for next year's resolutions. If a significant number of people take it (let's say at least 20), I will release the results. If you haven't taken it yet please take it here: https://forms.gle/UA11wYT3CvbwRqDRA.)
Even though Stoa season is cancelled, Stoa analysis hasn't been (yet at least). I'm pleased to announce I have predictions for the Ziggy Online Debate Tournament. A few notes on the methodology:
-As mentioned in the last update I added one win and one loss to everyone's record. This should prevent debaters who haven't been to as many tournaments from being drastically favored.
-I ultimately decided to use the full record of everyone rather than limiting it to only the past six tournaments. There wasn't enough of a justification to switch.
-Many at this tournament have not participated in LD this year. For those who haven't, I used the records of the most recent year they did LD (without including NITOC as part of the record). If they haven't done LD at all, I used their TP record for this year. This prediction may be a bit inaccurate in this sense due to the fact that it likely overestimates the odds of a TPer doing LD for the first time. It does give us an idea of the general skill level of the debater though, so it's better than nothing.
-This prediction does not take into account the first round of postings that have come out today.
-And of course, we assume power-matching starting the third round. While I'm pretty sure this is the case, I'm not 100% confident.)
So without further ado, a quick rundown of the predictions (with the full spreadsheet below):
Chance of winning:
Dylan George - 23%
Kalin Johnson - 11%
Elizabeth Powell - 11%
Caleb Kreft - 7%
Benjamin Wagner - 5%
Joel Payne - 5%
Nathanael Morgan - 4%
Simon Scott - 4%
Evan Lopez - 4%
Noah Reid - 3%
Malachi Frye - 3%
Daniel Wang - 3%
Elizabeth Miller - 3%
Nathan Wang - 3%
Lindsey Magness - 3%
Andrew Wagner - 2%
All other debaters are at less than 2%.
The model also gives a 44% probability of someone going 6-0. It also estimates on average no people will go 6-0, 2 will go 5-1, and 6 will go 4-2.
Full results can be viewed here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LStGc8AxM04uGENHeXgk4P6o0mYuhCFjRKAmQY4EGIU/edit?usp=sharing
Even though Stoa season is cancelled, Stoa analysis hasn't been (yet at least). I'm pleased to announce I have predictions for the Ziggy Online Debate Tournament. A few notes on the methodology:
-As mentioned in the last update I added one win and one loss to everyone's record. This should prevent debaters who haven't been to as many tournaments from being drastically favored.
-I ultimately decided to use the full record of everyone rather than limiting it to only the past six tournaments. There wasn't enough of a justification to switch.
-Many at this tournament have not participated in LD this year. For those who haven't, I used the records of the most recent year they did LD (without including NITOC as part of the record). If they haven't done LD at all, I used their TP record for this year. This prediction may be a bit inaccurate in this sense due to the fact that it likely overestimates the odds of a TPer doing LD for the first time. It does give us an idea of the general skill level of the debater though, so it's better than nothing.
-This prediction does not take into account the first round of postings that have come out today.
-And of course, we assume power-matching starting the third round. While I'm pretty sure this is the case, I'm not 100% confident.)
So without further ado, a quick rundown of the predictions (with the full spreadsheet below):
Chance of winning:
Dylan George - 23%
Kalin Johnson - 11%
Elizabeth Powell - 11%
Caleb Kreft - 7%
Benjamin Wagner - 5%
Joel Payne - 5%
Nathanael Morgan - 4%
Simon Scott - 4%
Evan Lopez - 4%
Noah Reid - 3%
Malachi Frye - 3%
Daniel Wang - 3%
Elizabeth Miller - 3%
Nathan Wang - 3%
Lindsey Magness - 3%
Andrew Wagner - 2%
All other debaters are at less than 2%.
The model also gives a 44% probability of someone going 6-0. It also estimates on average no people will go 6-0, 2 will go 5-1, and 6 will go 4-2.
Full results can be viewed here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LStGc8AxM04uGENHeXgk4P6o0mYuhCFjRKAmQY4EGIU/edit?usp=sharing
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