NITOC 2021 LD Probabilities (Updated for Outround 8)

(Scroll down for updates)

I've been able to update the model while taking into account Outround 1's results for Stoa LD. I will not be doing so for TP due to lack of time on my end. I also can't guarantee that there will be more posts like these, but I'd like to do more. I can always retroactively calculate the odds after the tournament ends but most people won't be interested at that point. As always, a couple of disclaimers need to be made before getting to the data.

1. Of the 64 top debaters attending NITOC by win percentage only 50 actually broke to outrounds. This leaves about 14 "dark horses" that the model doesn't compute for, and thus the percentages will add up to less than 100%.

2. I didn't adjust for outround skill level based on this new data. I used the same numbers I was already using pre-tournament. While those numbers have undoubtedly changed, adjusting them would only marginally affect the outcome in all likelihood.

3. There may be flaws in my methodology that I'm not aware of yet, as this is the first time I've tried updating my model mid-tournament in this way. 

Here are the updated LD chances of winning:

Logan Whitcher - 33% (+3%)

Justin Brautigam - 7% (+2%)

David Zilkie - 5% (+2%)

Judah Wright - 1% (-2%)

Justin Dasher - 0% (-3%)

Zachary Smith - 0% (-3%)

Cedar Roach - 1% (-2%)

Benjamin Arroyave - 1% (-2%)

Ryan Olson - 4% (+2%)

Ella Jacobs - 3% (+1%)

Oliver Di Martino - 1% (-1%)

Hannah Morgan - 1% (-1%)

Evan Lopez - 3% (+1%)

John McDowell - 1% (-1%)

Caleb Kreft - 3% (+1%)

Jeffrey Link - 2%

Josh Ellington - 2%

Daniel Lavy - 2% (+1%)

All other debaters are at less than 2%.

Full results can be viewed here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xHit79GFDX6LDbjLQEG71nS-w_hUT_Ang-8-NV45_HE/edit?usp=sharing

ROUND 2 UPDATE

Logan Whitcher - 39% (+6%)

Justin Brautigam - 2% (-5%)

David Zilkie - 2% (-3%)

Ryan Olson - 6% (+2%)

Ella Jacobs - 6% (+3%)

Evan Lopez - 5% (+2%)

Caleb Kreft - 4% (+1%)

Jeffrey Link - 4% (+2%)

Josh Ellington - 1% (-1%)

Daniel Lavy - 1% (-1%)

Judah Wright - 2% (+1%)

Parker Boone - 3% (+1%)

Ginger Schiffmayer - 3% (+2%)
Colby Axelberd - 3% (+2%)

Eli Flood - 2% (+1%)

All other debaters are at less than 2%.

Full results can be viewed here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ah5JRLrYiEdW9WQQBEtMcFYBQixPZRJzXMFnCD3pEu8/edit?usp=sharing

ROUND 3 UPDATE

Logan Whitcher - 43% (+4%)

Ryan Olson - 2% (-4%)

Ella Jacobs - 9% (+3%)

Evan Lopez - 2% (-3%)

Caleb Kreft - 2% (-2%)

Jeffrey Link - 7% (+3%)

Parker Boone - 5% (+2%)

Ginger Schiffmayer - 1% (-2%)

Colby Axelberd - 5% (+2%)

Judah Wright - 3% (+1%)

Eli Flood - 1% (-1%)

Elliot King - 2% (+1%)

Oliver Di Martino - 2% (+1%)

All other debaters were at less than 2%.

Full results can be viewed here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xa819l0eH_Ofj4eBCMH4kyfstGJddBypcn8tLQuy9kY/edit?usp=sharing

ROUND 4 UPDATE

Logan Whitcher - 47% (+4%)

Ella Jacobs - 12% (+3%)

Jeffrey Link - 3% (-4%)

Parker Boone - 2% (-3%)

Colby Axelberd - 7% (+2%)

Evan Lopez - 3% (+1%)

Caleb Kreft - 3% (+1%)

Elliot King - 1% (-1%)

Oliver Di Martino - 4% (+2%)

Eva Gaugh - 3% (+1%)

Daniel Lavy - 2% (+1%)

All other debaters were at less than 2%.

Full results can be viewed here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/182BzruEUZ_Solp5-mgnG9GtsA-nkVY181p1ayeBJI0M/edit?usp=sharing

ROUND 5 UPDATE

Logan Whitcher - 41% (-6%)

Ella Jacobs - 21% (+9%)

Colby Axelberd - 4% (-3%)

Evan Lopez - 9% (+6%)

Caleb Kreft - 7% (+4%)

Eva Gaugh - 8% (+5%)

Elliot King - 3% (+2%)

Micah Allen - 5% (+4%)

Caleb Quan - 4% (+3%)

All other debaters were at less than 2%.

Full results can be viewed here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zgr7CMWJaa5TYBayKZlHRMan1hykabrPmZln2apbySM/edit?usp=sharing

ROUND 6 UPDATE

Logan Whitcher - 42% (+1%)

Ella Jacobs - 24% (+3%)

Evan Lopez - 6% (-3%)

Eva Gaugh - 4% (-4%)

Caleb Kreft - 14% (+7%)

Micah Allen - 10% (+5%)

Andrew Wagner - 4% (+3%)

Full results can be viewed here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rka7dfvIIi2XJtYpnYD5khudSCMPFM1UgvXYYkL9Jjc/edit?usp=sharing

ROUND 7 UPDATE

Logan Whitcher - 60% (+18%)

Ella Jacobs - 19% (-5%)

Caleb Kreft - 12% (-2%)

Micah Allen - 10%

Full results can be viewed here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BHiFeI7TqK8-DJax7e7I38s1l1JCH8ylFn3Oh3z2dTs/edit?usp=sharing

ROUND 8 UPDATE

Logan Whitcher - 82% (+22%)

Micah Allen - 18% (+8%)

Full results can be viewed here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RepAF2uU98H4HJ5I59-wHijVuvcenVjw_wqzgjn4uYA/edit?usp=sharing