I'm pleased to announce that Stoa Analysis is back with more probabilities. The model has been revised and updated to fit the NITOC model and data for the top 64 teams was input into it. Before we get to the results, a few notes must be made to help you interpret these probabilities.
1. Most importantly, these probabilities are not gospel truth, and they are not predictions. They are estimates at likelihood. There are other factors that if taken into account would likely make the model slightly more accurate, but the amount of work required to account for all such factors would not be worth it for a marginal adjustment of a couple of percentage points.
2. This model only looks at the top 64 TP teams' chances of winning assuming that they break. In other words, the model treats the top 64 as if they have a 100% chance of breaking, and everyone else as if they have a 0% chance. This is obviously untrue, but when it comes to estimating winners and finalists it can be said with fair certainty that no one not in the top 64 will make it that far. However, the model may overestimate the quality of the competition since it assumes no upsets will happen.
3. This model only uses data from preliminary rounds at local tournaments. These are of course substantially different from some NITOC outrounds. Rounds with multiple judges are more likely to decide in favor of the better team than rounds with one judge. The model does not take this into account, and for this reason, some of the better teams may be underestimated.
Now without further ado, here are the probabilities for NITOC TP:
Tynan/Tynan - 11%
Kong/Lee - 11%
Reid/Schrum - 11%
Davidson/Farley - 5%
Alcazar/Dixon - 5%
Owen/Shashikanth - 5%
Parons/Parsons - 4%
Cheung/Mott - 4%
Helton/McGuire - 3%
Jacobson/Lang - 3%
Miller/Roberts - 3%
Belcher/Rapp - 3%
Harris/Harris - 3%
Highfill/Highfill - 2%
Knight/McKenna - 2%
Coada/Xu - 2%
Goebel/Souders - 2%
All other teams were at less than 1.5%.
View full results here (These include probabilities of a 9-0 finish for all teams, chances at octos, semis, finals, and more):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t88ng6lxRBcPCPmoc-vTFnKrayT2ChpGoKZgGR0AXqU/edit?usp=sharing
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