2022 Arkansas Diamond LD Probabilities

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We're back with more probabilities for the 2022 Arkansas Diamond! As always, here are a few notes on how to understand the odds.

1. It being so early in the year, there isn't a ton of data to work with, as I limited myself to data from this year only when I could. The predictions will be more accurate the further we progress in the season. 

2. Many results will be posted between now and the Diamond, meaning that these predictions will be outdated by the time the tournament arrives unless I decide to update them, which I probably won't do, so that's something to be aware of. The predictions are only an indication of how things look like they could turn out as of January 2-3rd, 2022.

3.  Those of you who are veterans of the site will know this, but it's worth repeating again, that these probabilities don't incorporate my opinion in any way, shape, or form. They are generated via pure math. If you're curious how that works, visit the About Us section of the blog, and if that isn't enough for you, contact me individually with questions. 

So without further ado, here are the probabilities for winning LD (Rounded to the nearest %):

Charis Baker - 24%
Margaret Draeker - 11%
Jonathan Zilkie - 7%
Aidan Bach - 5%
Sara Dodson - 5%
Savannah Prozik - 4%
Caleb Tham - 4%
Colby Axelberd - 2%
Ella Jacobs - 2%
Masako Orlando - 2%
Eliyah Speed - 2%
Eston Yandell - 2%
Eli Flood - 2%
Cate Linsenmeyer - 2%
Evan Lopez - 2%

All others were at less than 2%.

Additionally, the model estimates 1 6-0 record, 6 5-1 records, and 13 4-2 records, for a total of 20 checks out of 58 debaters. 



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