I'm pleased to announce that our second NITOC LD probability calculations are now complete. I've improved the model substantially since last year meaning it should be more accurate than ever. This year, the model takes into account everyone's chance of breaking, whereas last year the model assumed outrounds would be between the top 64. For the top debaters, assuming this, for the most part, ended up balancing out. While it did inflate the top 64's chances in the outrounds by assuming they would make it, it also deflated their chances by assuming that they would be matched against other top 64 debaters, and these probabilities almost perfectly cancelled each other out. Even so, the model now adjusts for both of these factors. I've attempted to streamline the model as much as possible so that I can update it with new information whenever I get a spare moment. Sadly, I can't 100% commit to giving live updates this year since I will be on vacation.
As always, remember that these are probabilities, not predictions. Just because someone is the most likely to win NITOC according to the model does not mean the model is "predicting" them to win. There are so many competitors that the top debater according to the model only has a 17% chance of winning. Far from predicting this debater to win, the model is giving them an 83% chance to lose. This is important to keep in mind when interpreting the results.
So without further ado, here is each debater's chance of winning NITOC LD:
Camille Rowley - 17%
Benjamin Arroyave - 15%
Cade Goebel - 4%
Caleb Tham - 4%
Caleb Helsing - 3%
Joshua Ren - 3%
Danielle Glick - 3%
Justin Brautigam - 3%
Evan Lopez - 2%
Alyson Nishimura - 2%
John McDowell - 2%
Eston Yandell - 2%
Samuel Estrick - 2%
Ryan Olson - 2%
Lauren Johnson - 2%
All other debaters are at less than 1.5%
Full results can be viewed here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tZnjdfxNaqU768X2IRnfIskuV5j8_BGBWrrPn50Xff8/edit?usp=sharing
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