NITOC 2023 LD Probabilities (Updated for Outround 1)

Welcome back to Stoa Analysis!

NITOC 2023 probabilities are here! In this post, I will be listing the odds of each top debater to win NITOC LD. Full results can be found in the associated spreadsheet.

Chances of winning:

John Jensen - 11%

Caleb Pacifici - 10%

Alyson Nishimura - 10%

Caleb Helsing - 6%

John Semple - 5%

Vivien White - 5%

Rebecca Hodge - 4%

Christian Woolsey - 4%

Evelyn Elliott - 3%

Isaiah Tallon - 3%

Josiah Schade - 3%

Caleb Stubbs - 3%

Jillian Heise - 2%

All other debaters have less than a 2% chance of winning.

View full results here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/109BYm-WP4sQ9GtZ01JI6JXIPT2aPm8xStBO83Y2GThg/edit?usp=sharing

BREAKS UPDATE

Chances of winning:

John Jensen - 13%

Caleb Pacifici - 12%

Alyson Nishimura - 11%

John Semple - 7%

Vivien White - 7%

Rebecca Hodge - 5%

Christian Woolsey - 5%

Evelyn Elliott - 4%

Isaiah Tallon - 4%

Caleb Stubbs - 4%

Jillian Heise - 3%

Thorger Baker - 3%

Aaron Wu - 3%

Ellie Munshi - 2%

Joshua Ren - 2%

All other debaters have less than a 2% chance of winning.

Full results can be viewed here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IMwgHzwh55cuNyu9WB-ZNxKWhoq9Rue0A1GQZPIvZCM/edit?usp=sharing

Curious how well the model predicted breaks? Check out the accuracy report here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13vuZUsoDaL8BkFZ12UDBLHke8DKU6fF_X6yi7LAIzY4/edit?usp=sharing

OUTROUND 1 UPDATE

John Jensen - 15% (+2%)

Caleb Pacifici - 15% (+3%)

Alyson Nishimura - 14% (+3%)

John Semple - 9% (+2%)

Christian Woolsey - 7% (+2%)

Evelyn Elliott - 6% (+2%)

Jillian Heise - 5% (+2%)

Thorger Baker - 4% (+1%)

Ellie Munshi - 3% (+1%)

Benjamin Rutten - 2% 

Lydia Jung - 2%

Vivien White - 2% (-5%)

Fischer Doan - 2% (+1%)

All other debaters have less than a 2% chance of winning.

View full results here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17QJwK-adRPNWW6SRK_oQGPa7gm3RThCs-TNSACn56ZM/edit?usp=sharing