NITOC 2023 TP Probabilities (Updated for Outround 1)

Here are the chances each top team has of winning NITOC TP. Full results can be found in the associated spreadsheet.

Chances of winning:

Earnest/Roose - 17%

Sargent/Sparks - 12%

Shipley/Winchel - 9%

Azer/Lopez - 8%

Borden/Ericksen - 6%

Belcher/Weaver - 6%

Enos/Hayes - 3%

Maue/Pattara - 3%

Jackson/Pineda - 3%

Rosa/Schmus - 2%

Spivey/Tomasovic - 2%

All other debaters have less than a 2% chance of winning.

View full results here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AP2LppO3H_aqGKopbvMUe1x_uPobpIa00Cf-Y-3fPH4/edit?usp=sharing

BREAKS UPDATE

Earnest/Roose - 19%

Shipley/Winchel - 10%

Azer/Lopez - 9%

Borden/Ericksen - 8%

Belcher/Weaver - 7%

Enos/Hayes - 4%

Maue/Pattara - 4%

Jackson/Pineda - 3%

Rosa/Schmus - 3%

Spivey/Tomasovic - 3%

Heckinger/Jones - 2%

Kubiak/Kubiak - 2%

Tate/White - 2%

All other debaters have less than a 2% chance of winning.

Full results can be viewed here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16zeKos6EhqRgb9HqvPYfy1s5gZCvNFj4xX6_6PDEIRc/edit?usp=sharing

Curious how well the model did at predicting breaks? Check out the accuracy report here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13vuZUsoDaL8BkFZ12UDBLHke8DKU6fF_X6yi7LAIzY4/edit?usp=sharing

OUTROUND 1 UPDATE

Earnest/Roose - 21% (+2%)

Shipley/Winchel - 12% (+2%)

Azer/Lopez - 11% (+2%)

Borden/Ericksen - 9% (+1%)

Enos/Hayes - 6% (+2%)

Rosa/Schmus - 4% (+1%)

Spivey/Tomasovic - 4% (+1%)

Heckinger/Jones - 3% (+1%)

Kubiak/Kubiak - 3% (+1%)

Boyle/Clerie - 3% (+1%)

Dixon/Varner - 3% (+1%)

Elliott/Roberts - 3% (+1%)

Belcher/Weaver - 2% (-5%)

Hong/Kauk - 2%

Cho/Schmidtler - 2% (+1%)

All other teams have less than a 2% chance of winning.

View full results here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vQdKaTcVTng5r0ZD968HyiWUpKngl97spBs4SnH7QfU/edit?usp=sharing